Winter is coming

Round 14, 2022
St Kilda 2.1, 3.3, 8.4, 11.6 (72)
Essendon 4.5, 7.7, 13.11, 15.17 (107)
Crowd: 33,274 at Marvel Stadium, Friday, June 17th at 7.50pm
By Lethal

“Should be a win for the Saints on Friday night, yeah”, I’m asked. In response, I give them the look. “I’m a Saints supporter; I’m never fully confident”.

We’ve all had these chats with friends or colleagues. Do they know that they’re probably tempting the fate of the Footy God’s when saying such things? For the most part, no. You can forgive them for posing such questions. On paper, and taking in even the most surface level footy information, this was surely a contest of two teams of starkly different ambitions. Plus, no Darcy Parish.

But this is the Saints – we turn any game into a banana peel game. And this is the Essendon Football Club. They’ve bullied us; they troll us, regardless of where the teams sit on the ladder, for decades now.

As soon as I confronted having to actually write this the impulse was right there to contrast this horrendous loss to the corresponding fixture in Round 3 last year. On that occasion, it was a 75-point drubbing, but it may as well have been 100 points plus given how gobsmacked it left Saints fans at the ground. It felt like a bumper crowd (29,234 in actual fact), but that may have been accentuated by the fact that it was only my second in-person footy experience since the Pandemic had set in, and so like most, I was super hyped. St Kilda had started off in a so-so fashion so far that year, having defeated the Giants in a drizzly game interstate, before a shoddy effort against the Demons at Corporate Stadium. St Kilda’s injury list was already worrying and significant (Ryder, Marshall, Gresham etc), Crouch suspended too, and so most fans had largely ignored any warning signs of tumultuous waters ahead, to that point. The goodwill of 2020 had spilled over nicely. Round 3 was a complete smack in the face. It was the type of loss that can suddenly make you re-evaluate everything to do with the Club. What’s been going on over summer? Does the Coach actually have a grip on what’s happening? What does this team stand for? Is Steele actually made for the captaincy gig? It was like the mask had been ripped off of the 2021 Saints. Claims to the effect of “we’ll get Jones / Crouch / Ryder” back in the side all felt empty. Something had become rotten at the core. The word rudderless keeps coming to mind. 

This time around and again the Bombers are the bullies stealing our chocolate milk.

This loss cuts differently though. Spud’s game. On Friday Night Footy – we don’t get many. But also, the stakes in a football sense were so much higher compared to that Easter Saturday train-wreck. Going into the mid-year BYE, all things aside, we had put ourselves in a strong position to claim a finals spot. Coming into Friday Night, for Spud’s game, having absorbed the bulk of the Footy’s world media spotlight, we were 8-4 and in need of a win to solidify our position in the light of the battles on the horizon. A win here and we can get on the front foot before diving head first into a gauntlet of games against finals aspirants Sydney, Carlton, Freo and the Dogs. It’s the hope that twists the knife.

The Club has known that Winter Is Coming for several weeks now. Making hay while the sun is shining has been front of mind, and the Bombers presented a calm before the storm in terms of the second half of the year. “We have invented ways of stuffing things up” – a paraphrased Grant Thomas. 2022 has been an improved year, all things considered and the win-loss attests to that. Yet, I think even the most one-eyed Saint would agree that the Saints don’t have the luxury of playing with a ‘flick the switch’ mentality. This season has contained several victories, where contributions from 22 players (or close to) has been the order of the day. In Winks, Gresh – and to a lesser extent Snags – this side does contain wildcards, the quality of which we haven’t possessed for literally 10 years. Nonetheless, this side’s modus operandi has been to control the footy, work the ball forward, be defensively minded across the ground and allow our defence to set up higher up the ground. This, alongside periods where we play-on more readily and utilise our halfbacks to kickstart forays forward. But our commitment to the defensive structures has always underpinned the other parts of the game.

At a fundamental level, the Bombers game was a chance to actually bounce back to form after a frustrating trip to Brisbane. Slice it any way you like, we led the ladder leaders by two goals at half-time on their home deck. It was far from a standout performance, but especially early on we were on top and showed we could mix it with the more fancied Lions. The rest of the game descended into frustration, both in the way we wilted around the ball (hello, massive inside 50 loss) and in the casualties that we suffered along the way. 

Does this team have a deer-in-the-headlights problem? Corporate Stadium was heaving in Round 1; overflowing with the black and white army. Saints fans were more sheepish in their anticipation. I mentioned to Tom at the time that there was a pretty strong chance of us “shitting the bed” in light of the spotlight and the occasion (see: actual significant numbers of fans at a game). What muddies this discussion is that this team hasn’t been good enough to work itself into many games of significance over the last several years. Does Seb Ross play well in big games? Well, hell how do we know – we’ve barely played in a handful of “Big Games” since 2011’s Elimination Final. 

Perhaps the most frustrating aspect of the night for me was that, as much as we seemed off from essentially the get-go, at half-time you were still left thinking that the game was still right there for the taking. The Bombers had “come to play”, and their ability to put speed on the ball had seemingly stoked the Saints CBF vibes, but the Saints had ample chances to hit the scoreboard. Blatant skill errors, ragged movement, over complicated disposal in the forward 50, all conspired to us squandering countless chances up forward. The Dons were the better side, but their somewhat cavalier approach to bolting forward had also revealed so many holes for us to poke through when having ball in hand. 

It only took a minute into the third term for the Saints to strike. Skunk was re-instated to the forward line after having been deployed as a loose man across defence in the second term. But it was Marshall, another anonymous figure in the first half, who out-muscled Ridley to take an excellent grab. He celebrated the set shot with a 300-esque flex. This was a play that actually looked like it was plucked from the training ground: the behind the goal camera showing Marshall dart around Long in a horizontal U-shape, in turn letting Long put in a half screen for RoMa’s man. The Saints then kicked the next four by way of Ryder, Long, Latte, and Snags. This was all within a 7 minute spurt. Even the umpires were swept up in the momentum of it, Billings and Snags both on the end of extremely fortunate umpiring decisions. 

This patch was a blitzkrieg and by the time Snags kicked the fifth of that bunch, we were one point in front. Yet the Dons weren’t completely shaken. Our bubble was feebly burst by Stringer’s arching long-bomb set shot from 53 metres out. Such a fitting party-pooper. This was the first of 5 consecutive from the Dons to close out the quarter – including another from the The Package, this time on the left foot. Like a lot of the year, St Kilda’s centre square work seemed mostly like a roll of the dice. There’s no coverage for when we don’t win the initial scrimmage or tap. Once the Dons had weathered the initial storm in the middle, the patterns of the first half re-emerged. Too often Saints players getting caught ahead of the ball and too often the Dons being able to spread the ball easily out of contested situations. 

*****

Gresham was awarded a free for “insufficient intent” (see: deliberate out of bounds) and duly kicked a nice Stevie J deep into the last term to bring it back to a five goal margin. That was his third of the night to go with 31 disposals. Through the start of the third term he was one of the spark plugs around the ball that started shifting the momentum of the game. This only slightly made up for the fact that it was his spontaneous, reckless switch across goal that rolled-out the red carpet for the Dons to intercept and waltz into their first goal of the night early in the first term. Those mindless moments are what can drive you crazy sometimes when watching Gresh. Finding the balance between spontaneous brilliance and trying to do too much continues to be a process with him. 

Another player that stood out was Josh Battle. He was resolute in defence, plugging holes on the last line several times. He’s been Mr.Consistent this year and his efforts through the year have probably been somewhat overshadowed by the similarly consistent Cal Wilkie. Once or twice JB was caught out trying to outjump Draper or Two Metre Peter, but he was stranded on such occasions. The back six was laid bare so many times with the ball moving between the arcs at light speed without a semblance of pressure on the ball carriers.

For all the inevitable fanfare, neither Clark or Billings came away having solidified a position in the 22. Latte did snag a beautiful, spontaneous banana snap goal in the second term – one of the Saints’ three majors for the half. He added to his tally with a second as part of the third quarter blitzkrieg – a set shot was from the goal line after a contender for worst 50 metre penalty of the year. (Guelfi supposedly breached the “Outside 5” protected zone rule. If that’s a 50 metre penalty, then the umpires are missing about 100 a game). Jack’s impact outside of his two goals was minimal if any. He seemed to be played predominantly through the midfield, yet you didn’t see him reach or impact many contests at all. More worryingly for Saints fans is that Latte’s projected major elite talent (his kicking) seems to regularly desert him these days. Case in point, Latte had a free-kick dead on centre-wing in second term and with all the time in the world, including a 5×5 “outside 5” radius of space around him, he managed to kick the ball a metre above Max King’s head in the forward pocket, despite their being 10 metres in front of Max begging to be utilised. Max’s finger tips couldn’t pull the mark in. Another foray scuppered.

The most curious aspect of this Billings thread to the season is that Jack was re-signed for a further four years only several months ago – as good a symbol as any that Latte is part of the Club’s short term future and building towards a flag tilt, right? But by round 10 this year, it had become plainly evident that his spot in the best 22 was questionable at best. Despite some big numbers at Sandy, Latte only managed to be included for the Adelaide game before being dumped back to the Zebras. That performance against Adelaide? Aside from two impactful moments in the final term he laboured. It’s been a pretty telling shift in sentiment towards the former Pick #3. Perhaps, the Club did not see the rookie trio (Windy, Nas, and Mitchito) having such an impact on the Seniors this early. Perhaps they didn’t envisage they would be as physically ready as they have been. Perhaps the early inclusion of Nas, and a more consistent and spry Hill, has opened the Coaches eyes to the benefits of a midfield mix with a little more in the way of dash and polish. Latte is unquestionably talented, but I think the door has well truly shut on him living up to Pick 3. Can he become a serviceable AFL player? If he is to be played up forward more permanently, then will he discover a way to impact the game when he doesn’t have the ball?

*****

At the BYE, I went through each of the remaining games in the fixture and I couldn’t quite settle on whether we’d finish with 12 or 13 wins. Having now played Essendon, I’d say we will finish with 12 wins. Will that be enough for the Finals? Probably not, given that the Pies and Richmond both have significantly smoother runs towards September. The Pies do finish with two tough fixtures though. Of course, this is all hinging on the Saints form and health – particularly the former. If we were to recapture our best form, then 13 or 14 wins is not out of the question at all. The ladder is tight. Incidentally, as part of my 12 win prediction I had pencilled us in for a loss this week. That said, the Swans form has recently nosedived.  

Presuming he’s at close to 100 percent, the return of Steele next week as well as Murmurs McKenzie (surely) and the availability of Mitchito, would mean that from a health perspective the Saints are in as good a position as they could hope with over half the season gone. Geary was shaping as a possible inclusion but a shoulder injury again has him on the sidelines. 

This makes for further selection dilemmas as we dive into the depths of June and July. What mix of small forwards are needed? Does Nas’ outside polish overshadow his inadequacies without the footy in hand? Can Sharman be played alongside King, Membrey and Ryder or Marshall? This type of depth has not been seen at Moorabbin since 2011. It’s a welcome sight.

Resident Cryptocurrency magnate Snags Higgins I think should be closest to the chopping block. Every time he didn’t mark the ball on Friday Night, he was either on all fours or he was left in the wake of his opponents. Indications from the bulls and bears in the market is that SnagsCoin is at a yearly low, but I’m not buying. Speaking of bulls, The Ben Long Experience has earnt the right to be up forward full-time. It lets him lean into his maniacal tendencies. He’s become a barometer of our pressure gauge and is one of the few players from Friday Night that relished that part of the game. Butler’s ball use was at its rollercoaster worst, and so his omission wouldn’t shock me either. Ryan Byrnes was apparently out there too; definitely seemed to be playing at VFL pace. Would the match committee be tempted into giving Kent a run, as a statement as much as anything? 

Historically Ratts and the match committee have tended to give players more than 1 game to prove themselves before pulling the trigger on omission. Though the Billings omission after Adelaide perhaps signalled a shift in policy this year – particularly in regards to established players who should know their role. My gut tells me that Clark gets another week before the selection microscope zones on him properly. Problem is, that the Saints finals chances are officially on the clock. Round 15 – a mini final. Round 15 last year saw us reduce the still finals aspiring Tigers to 2.10 (22) and an emphatic victory at the G. This week requires a similar return to respecting the defensive aspects of the game.   

Snack of Choice (SoC) of the round [SPONSORSHIP PENDING]

• N/A. I was at a bar and so snacks were sidelined, and instead wine was being consumed. Quite a bit of it.

Selection table radar

• Who would I actually drop for this week? It’s a really tricky one. McKenzie and Steele must be back in. Byrnes, Snags, Clark, Billings and Nas all should be put heavily under the microscope. Probably Butler too – why not I guess.
• Paton has struggled for at least the last 3-4 games. I’m not sure there’s a ready made replacement to come in. Leo Conolly hasn’t been exactly thumping the door down. I don’t see Highmore as a like-for-like.
• Has Zak Jones actually done much this year? He’s meant to be one of our x-factor players. Very nondescript season from Zak and needs to do more.